(Photo/NBA.com)
The 2024 NBA Finals have finally arrived with the top-seeded Boston Celtics facing off with the number five seed out west, the Dallas Mavericks.
The contrast between how Boston has gotten here versus Dallas has been a fun storyline so far in these playoffs.
The Celtics were a heavy title favorite coming into the season after acquiring Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis in the summer and they’ve maybe even exceeded expectations. A league-best 64-18 in the regular season, Boston has run through its opponents in the playoffs, even without their star big man Porzingis.
Only losing two games total so far in the playoffs, the Celtics started their journey by getting revenge on the rival Heat who ended their season last year while being the eighth seed. Boston got past Miami in five games before moving on to face Cleveland.
It was more of the same in the Eastern Conference Semis for the Celtics who defeated the Cavaliers in five games, even after dropping game 2 of the series at home.
The last obstacle in their way was the surprise six-seeded Indiana Pacers, a young team led by a fast-paced and efficient offense. The Pacers gave the Celtics all they could handle at times in the series, but after All-Star Tyrese Haliburton went down with a hamstring injury, there was no denying Jayson Tatum and company as they earned their spot in The Finals after a four-game sweep.
Although their run in the playoffs has come with little resistance, many still have their questions about Boston due to their lapses at times and puzzling inconsistencies on the floor in spurts.
Furthermore, their luck with injuries in each series has allowed people to continue to cast doubts on the team and question the legitimacy of their title run.
Searching for a league-best 18th NBA Title in franchise history, Boston can silence the doubters with a win over Dallas.
The Mavericks on the other hand have been an entertaining and pleasant surprise in the playoffs.
Posting a 50-32 record to conclude the regular season, Dallas landed as the fifth seed in the Western Conference, setting up a difficult and unforeseen run to the NBA Finals.
But with their star duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving leading the way, the Mavericks have found themselves as just the second No. 5 seed to ever make the NBA Finals.
The excellence of Doncic and Irving did not come without some assistance though. Dallas has seen role player after role player step up in big ways during the postseason on both ends of the floor.
Most notably, rookie center Derek Lively II shined in the Western Conference Finals against Minnesota.
Going the entire series without missing a single shot (16/16) Lively’s size and athleticism were an issue for Minnesota’s big men offensively and on the glass. His playmaking and finishing ability out of pick-and-roll situations was outstanding as well, making the Dallas offense nearly unstoppable.
Trade deadline acquisitions P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford have been brilliant as well. Washington has played a huge role in boosting a much improved Dallas defense and has been a reliable three-point shooter. Gafford has played a big role in Dallas’s pick-and-roll offense as a lob threat and has been arguably its best rim protector.
Mark Cuban’s team battled their way through the Western Conference by eliminating three of the top four-seeded teams.
Beginning with a clash against the Clippers, Doncic and Irving carried the Mavericks in a close-out game to win the series in six.
In the Western Conference Semifinals, they squared off with the No. 1-seeded Thunder, a young team led by MVP runner-up, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Thunder’s youth and lack of playoff experience proved to be the reason for their downfall, although they gave the Mavericks their best shot. Dallas won the series, once again in six games.
That victory set up a highly-anticipated matchup with the No. 3 seeded Timberwolves, led by the ascension of Anthony Edwards and their stifling defense.
Having just eliminated the defending champion Nuggets, the Timberwolves’ confidence was through the roof going into the series.
However, the brilliance of Doncic and Irving was all too much as Dallas found ways to win close game after close game. After winning games one and two on the road, the Mavs took a 3-0 lead in the series after game three, practically cementing their spot in The Finals.
Even after a bounce-back win in Game Four for Minnesota, they seemed to run out of gas in Game Five. A masterclass from Doncic led to a blowout loss and an end to their season after five games in the conference finals.
The continued stardom of Doncic combined with the rise of the Mavericks’ supporting cast has led them to this point and caused fans around the association to join the bandwagon.
With a win in The Finals, the Mavericks can secure their second NBA Title and Franchise history and first since 2011 when they defeated LeBron James and Miami’s “Big Three.”
Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks
How effective will Kristaps Porzingis be?
Porzingis has played in just four playoff games this season, missing the rest with a calf injury. He will be available for the series and game one, but the main question is how effective will he be after missing around a month.
In the regular season, Porzingis averaged just over 20 points per game and seven rebounds. He also averaged a team-high 1.9 blocks per game.
His ability to stretch the floor offensively added a new element to Boston’s offense, which is statistically the most efficient offense in league history. But his defensive impact might be even more important for the Celtics.
The best rim protector on the roster, Porzingis’ versatility on the defensive end is what makes Boston so effective. In the ECF, Indiana shot 74% at the rim in games 1-3 (ESPN)
Athletically he can step out and switch onto guards and forwards when needed, which Al Horford has struggled to do late in his career. In the conference finals, Horford was almost a liability defensively.
In the series, he was unable to match up with Myles Turner or Pascal Siakam. Turner’s efficient three-point shooting torched Horford in the series. Siaka’s ability to step out and play from the free-throw line extended gave him issues as well. Siakam was able to shoot over Horford or use his quickness to blow by him for shots at the rim.
The bottom line is that Horford was targeted repeatedly against Indiana. Although the Mavericks’ bigs are not as capable of creating their own shots, they can still target Horford in pick-and-roll situations to get Horford switched onto guards.
The flow for Boston’s offense with Porzingis back will be something to watch as well. This season, the Celtics are 8-1 without Porzingis in the playoffs and 21-4 in the regular season when he was out.
At the end of the day, Porzingis is likely the X-Factor in this series. Boston knows what they’re going to get out of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but the production of Porzingis can drastically shift the outcome of the series.
2. How will Boston defend the pick-and-roll against Luka Doncic?
The Celtics have been one of the best teams defensively in the NBA all season and in the playoffs. But nobody has had an answer for Luka Doncic this postseason, especially when he attacks out of pick-and-roll sets.
Minnesota, the NBA’s best defense statistically, was cooked by the Luka pick-and-roll in the WCF, regardless of what coverage they threw at him.
How will Boston defend it?
We’ve seen teams use “drop coverage” against Doncic with the defender of the player setting the screen playing below the level of the screen. This coverage has been destroyed by Doncic getting to his midrange spots for east jumpers or lobs to the rim leading to dunks for Dallas’ big men.
The Mavericks have scored the most points off of lob passes to the rim in the playoffs and by a wide, wide margin. Playing drop coverage could be trouble for Boston.
Another option for the Celtics could be to switch on screen-and-roll sets. With Porzingis back and Tatum on the floor, they would fare much better than Minnesota did in this coverage.
Still, Doncic has been excellent at exploiting mismatches in the playoffs and making defenders look silly when switching onto him. Just go back and see what he did to the defensive player of the year Rudy Gobert during the WCF, especially in game 2 and the issues he gave Mike Conley as well as others.
The last option that could be most effective, is the decision to “blitz” the ball on screen-and-roll sets, double-teaming the ball to move Doncic further away from the basket and forcing him to pass.
The issue here is that Doncic is one of the most skilled passers in the NBA and will find the open man every time if the Celtics defend him this way. In the WCF, he found Lively and Gafford rolling to the rim time and time again or passed the ball to the corners for open shots.
The short and simple answer is that there’s no perfect way to defend the MVP Finalist, no matter the coverage. The key will be figuring out which coverage forces Doncic to exert the most energy and take time off the clock.
3. Battle of the Big Men
The fight between the big men in the series could be the deciding factor. Going into this series, we know what we’re going to get from the stars on both sides–Tatum & Brown, Doncic & Irving. But how will the frontcourt players impact the series?
Boston is possibly the most dangerous three-point shooting team in the playoffs and that ability stretches to their frontcourt players as well. Porzingis shot over 37% from three in the regular season and Al Horford is shooting nearly 35% from outside in the playoffs.
Dallas has had to defend centers and power forwards that can stretch the floor in the playoffs on multiple occasions (Chet Holmgren, Karl Anthony-Towns, etc.) and those big men struggled from beyond the arc in those respective series.
But those teams also did not have many players similar to Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, who can get to the rim with ease.
For the Celtics, their match-up with the Mavericks centers and power forwards goes back to defending lobs to the rim.
The Mavs have scored the most points off alley-oops in the postseason and the margin is not close. They have scored on 57 alley-oops total in the playoffs (NBA.com), which is 45 more than Denver who ranks second.
Further, in the playoffs, they are averaging 3.4 alley-oops per game.
No team has had an answer for their alley-oop passes to Lively, Gafford, Washington and Jones. The biggest task for Boston outside of Luka and Kyrie will be how they defend Dallas’ explosive alley-oop scoring.
Predictions: Who wins the series? Who takes Finals MVP?
As stated earlier, Boston has been the title favorite all season long and has been the most dominant and talented team on paper. Outside of their random lapses in focus here and there, they truly have no weakness on either end of the floor. With Porzingis back, they finally have the rim protection that they’ve been lacking as of late and have a weapon at center that can take the top off of their offensive potential. Both of Boston’s starting guards were named to the NBA’s All-Defensive second team this season, showing their ability as a team to harass opposing guards. However, I do think the lack of depth could hurt the Celtics if their starting five gets into foul trouble or we see another unfortunate injury. The fact is that the Mavericks not only have the best player in the series in Luka Doncic, but they have more depth overall and players that can contribute off the bench. Nobody has had any answer for Doncic and he, along with Kyrie Irving, has been maybe the best duo in late-game situations this postseason. Their playmaking abilities have added a new element to the Mavs’ offense and helped their role players step up all postseason. Defensively, Dallas has transformed into a team that defends with efficiency and without fouling, even Doncic who has been known to be lethargic defensively has shown a sense of urgency on that end of the floor. Nonetheless, the Mavs are heavy underdogs, and rightfully so. If they are going to win the series, they will have to defend the three-point line like their lives depend on it and take advantage of the Celtics’ lapses. Ultimately though, I believe that Boston has too much offensively and will be able to limit Dallas’s offense more effectively than its previous opponents. The trio of Brown, Tatum and Porzingis will be all too much for the Mavericks to handle and their defense will suffocate Dallas’s role players. In what may be a surprise, I have Jaylen Brown taking home Finals MVP. I believe that while Tatum is the best player for the Celtics, he’ll step into more of a playmaking role with Porzingis back and allow Brown to take over the scoring burden. After all, Jaylen Brown did sign the largest contract in NBA history this offseason, it’s time for him to further prove the Celtics right in this series.
Boston wins the series in six games to bring home their first NBA Title since 2008 and 18th all-time, Jaylen Brown takes home Finals MVP.
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